Occupancy normalised from the 2021 peak while supply continued arriving, and the corridor's spread between well-run and poorly-run cabins widened. This is what Gatlinburg looked like in 2023, what the numbers supported, and what a buyer should have been asking before writing an offer.
What 2023 was, across the whole asset class
2023 was the year the market cooled and underwriting started to matter again.
2023 was the correction. Rates stayed high, supply that had been added during the boom arrived on the market, and occupancy in several previously unstoppable markets came down. The phrase that circulated was Airbnbust, which was overstated, and the underlying shift was real: revenue per property fell in markets where supply had grown fastest.
The spread between well-run and poorly-run properties widened sharply. In a market where everything fills, operational quality is invisible. In 2023 it was the whole difference.
Where Gatlinburg sat that year
Occupancy normalised from the 2021 peak while supply continued arriving, and the corridor's spread between well-run and poorly-run cabins widened.
The structural facts of the market did not change much across the period. Peak season in Gatlinburg, Tennessee: Summer and October leaf season, plus the winter light festival. Entry prices for the kind of property we underwrite have sat in the $500,000 - $1,300,000 band. What moved between 2022 and now was the cost of financing it and the depth of the competition.
The mistake in any single year is reading that year as the trend. Cabin prices peaked, and buyers were paying for 2021 revenue with 2022 financing costs. That was the year before, and it is not the same market.
The numbers the market supports
These are the ranges a well-positioned property in this market supports. They are estimates for illustration rather than a projection for any specific property, and the spread inside each range is mostly explained by basis, amenity fit and management.
| Metric | Estimated range |
|---|---|
| Entry price | $500,000 - $1,300,000 |
| Average daily rate | $265 - $470 |
| Annual occupancy | 57% - 66% |
| Gross annual revenue | $70,000 - $165,000 |
| Net cash flow after debt service | $15,000 - $40,000 |
| Peak season | Summer and October leaf season, plus the winter light festival |
A property at the bottom of those ranges and one at the top are rarely different properties. They are usually the same property bought at a different basis and run to a different standard.
What the 2023 tax position did to the maths
Bonus depreciation stepped down to 80% for property placed in service in 2023, the first year of the TCJA phase-down.
With bonus depreciation at 80%, a cost segregation study still produced a large first-year deduction, and the arithmetic changed enough that the study cost had to be weighed more carefully on smaller purchases.
None of that changes the two conditions the strategy actually rests on. The property has to clear a seven-day average period of customer use, and the owner has to materially participate. Miss either and the loss is passive regardless of what the bonus depreciation percentage was that year.
This is an explanation of how the rules worked in that year, not tax advice. My BnB Accelerator, LLC is a real estate acquisition firm, not a CPA firm. Our independent partner firm is AE Tax Advisors.
What the risk actually was
The properties that got into trouble in 2023 were bought at peak prices with thin reserves in markets that were absorbing new supply. None of those three alone was fatal. Together they were.
In Gatlinburg specifically, the thing to have checked was the regulatory position for the exact parcel. Tennessee rules are covered in detail on the state page, and the local layer underneath them is where deals are won or lost.
We run the same six verification steps on every property before an offer, in every state and in every year: parcel zoning, whether short-term rental is an allowed use, whether permits are capped or transferable, the full association declaration, lodging tax registration, and written confirmation from the jurisdiction.
What a buyer should have done
2023 rewarded buyers who could underwrite honestly and walk away. Basis mattered more than it had in years, because there was no longer a rising tide to cover an overpay.
The underwriting discipline does not change with the year. Twelve individual monthly revenue figures built from a comparable set you assembled yourself, a complete expense stack including reserves, and a stress test at 75% of projection that still covers debt service.
Demand held up on the strength of the deepest visitor base in the country, and amenity fit rather than novelty decided which cabins performed. That is what came next, and a buyer in 2023 could not have known it. Which is the argument for a basis that survives being wrong.
Keep reading
Frequently asked questions
How much could you make on an Airbnb in Gatlinburg in 2023?
A well-positioned property in Gatlinburg, Tennessee supports gross revenue in the $70,000 - $165,000 range at an average daily rate of $265 - $470 and occupancy of 57% - 66%. Those are estimates for illustration rather than a projection for any specific property.
What was bonus depreciation in 2023?
Bonus depreciation stepped down to 80% for property placed in service in 2023, the first year of the TCJA phase-down.
What was the main risk in Gatlinburg in 2023?
The properties that got into trouble in 2023 were bought at peak prices with thin reserves in markets that were absorbing new supply. None of those three alone was fatal. Together they were.