Estimated annual occupancy across the 20 markets we track runs from 48% to 72% in 2026. Theme-park and urban markets sit at the top because demand is year round, while premium ski and desert markets sit lower because deep shoulder seasons pull the annual average down. Occupancy on its own is a weak quality signal, since it can always be bought by cutting rate.
Estimated 2026 occupancy by market
| Market | Annual occupancy | Peak season |
|---|---|---|
| Kissimmee | 62% - 72% | Steady year round, with summer and holiday periods strongest |
| Nashville | 60% - 70% | Spring through fall, with bachelorette and event weekends carrying rate |
| Scottsdale | 60% - 70% | January through April, with spring training and golf season carrying the year |
| Smoky Mountains | 58% - 68% | June through October, with a strong December holiday spike |
| Sedona | 60% - 68% | March through May and September through November |
| Phoenix and Mesa | 58% - 68% | January through April, with spring training driving a March surge |
| Denver | 58% - 68% | Steady year round, with summer and ski-season weekends strongest |
| Gatlinburg | 57% - 66% | Summer and October leaf season, plus the winter light festival |
| Austin | 55% - 66% | Event driven, with March, football weekends, and festival dates spiking rate |
| Destin | 56% - 65% | March through August, with spring break and summer carrying most of the year |
| Broken Bow | 55% - 65% | Spring and fall weekends, with strong summer lake demand |
| Panama City Beach | 55% - 64% | March through August, with a pronounced spring break surge |
| Branson | 55% - 64% | April through October, with a strong Christmas season |
| Cape Coral | 54% - 63% | January through April, driven by winter visitors from the Midwest and Canada |
| Gulf Shores | 54% - 63% | March through August, mirroring the Florida panhandle |
| Poconos | 52% - 62% | Summer weekends and the winter ski season, with a soft shoulder in spring |
| Park City | 52% - 62% | December through March, with Sundance and the ski season carrying the year |
| Big Bear Lake | 50% - 60% | Winter ski season and summer lake season, with two soft shoulders |
| Joshua Tree | 48% - 58% | October through May, with summer heat suppressing demand |
| Lake Tahoe | 48% - 58% | Winter ski season and July through August, with deep spring and fall troughs |
Figures are estimates assembled from our own closings and active-listing comparables, offered for illustration. They are not projections for any specific property, and actual performance varies with location, condition, amenities, management, and season.
Why occupancy is the most misread number in this business
Occupancy can be bought. Drop your rate far enough and you will fill every night, and you will earn less doing it. A property at 85% occupancy in a market where comparables run 60% is usually underpriced rather than outperforming.
The number that resolves this is RevPAR, average daily rate multiplied by occupancy, which spreads revenue across every available night and cannot be gamed by discounting. See what is RevPAR.
Occupancy shape matters more than the annual figure
Two markets at 58% annual occupancy can present completely different risk. Kissimmee earns close to that rate every month of the year. Park City earns most of its nights across four winter months and very few in April and May.
The consequence is financial rather than cosmetic. Fixed costs, debt service, insurance, property tax, and base utilities, do not pause in the shoulder season. Model the worst three consecutive months against those costs, and size the reserve to the gap. A property grossing $95,000 a year can still be $4,000 short in May. See cash reserves and seasonality.
A common error in listing data: owner-blocked nights. Many tools cannot distinguish a night blocked for personal use from a night that booked, which inflates apparent occupancy on properties whose owners use them. Treat any single-source occupancy figure as directional.
What actually moves occupancy
- Review velocity in the first 90 days. New listings carry no ranking signal, which is why most operators price 15 to 25 percent below target for the first several bookings.
- Minimum stay settings. A two-night minimum in a weekend market fills; a four-night minimum in the same market leaves gaps that never sell.
- Filter amenities. Missing a filter that guests apply removes you from the results entirely, which reads as an occupancy problem and is really a visibility problem.
- Response time and instant book. Both feed placement, and placement feeds occupancy.
Underwrite the trough, not the average
Every property we present is modelled against its worst three consecutive months, so the reserve requirement is priced in before you commit.
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Frequently asked questions
What is a good occupancy rate for a short-term rental?
It depends entirely on the market's rate structure. A high-rate seasonal cabin market can be highly profitable at 55 to 60 percent, while a lower-rate urban market may need 70 percent or more to produce the same revenue. Judge occupancy against local comparables, never against a national average.
What is the average Airbnb occupancy rate?
Across the markets we track, estimated annual occupancy centres on roughly 55 to 65 percent. Figures above 75 percent in a leisure market usually indicate underpricing rather than exceptional performance.
Why is occupancy a misleading metric?
Because it can be purchased by lowering price. A property can reach 85 percent occupancy at a rate that destroys revenue. RevPAR, which multiplies rate by occupancy, is the better single measure of performance.
Which markets have the most stable occupancy?
Theme-park and urban markets. Kissimmee and Nashville show the flattest calendars on this list because their demand does not have a genuine off season, which makes cash flow more predictable even though peak rate is lower than a premium leisure market.